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Feature Article

12/11/2017 - 12:48pm By: Calculated Risk

The consensus is that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate 25bps at the meeting this week.

Assuming the expected happens, the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's final press conference to try to determine how many rate hikes to expect in 2018.

Here are the September FOMC projections.

The projection for GDP in 2017 will likely be revised up. GDP in Q1 was at 1.2% annualized, Q2 at 3.1%, and Q3 at 3.3%. Current projections put Q4 GDP at around 2.5% to 2.9%. This would put GDP (Q4 over Q4) at the high end of the September forecast range.

Note: My guess is, as far as the impact of any fiscal stimulus, the Fed will...

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